It seems like only a few weeks ago when Mississippi experienced record-cold temperatures, but summer, which does not officially begin until June 20, is already here and if you like hot, humid and wet weather, go ahead and jump for joy.
“It’s always hot in Mississippi,” said Michael Hill, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Jackson. “That’s my default answer. It’s going to hot, humid like it always is in Mississippi.”
According to the NWS Climate Prediction Center, odds are leaning in favor of a hotter-than-average summer with a 40%-50% chance of being hotter than average during June, July and August.
“It’s going to be hot,” Hill said. “It’s going to be Mississippi, and we have to watch out for patterns that might set up for record heat.”
A dry, scorching and costly 2023 summer
In the summer of 2023, such a pattern did set up. Daily heat records were broken in Jackson, Hattiesburg and elsewhere in the state with highs over 100 degrees.
If that wasn’t difficult enough to deal with, much of the state went months with no appreciable rainfall. That led to wildfires in parts of the state and burn bans in many counties.
The effects of temperatures hotter than extra spicy crab boil seasoning and little precipitation in the South didn’t stop there. They caused a shortage of crawfish and prices soared.
Other crops suffered, too. The USDA declared Mississippi an agricultural disaster due to damaged crops and high costs associated with the drought.
Will Mississippi have a rainy summer?
So far, it doesn’t appear Mississippi will see a repeat of that. Hill said the average annual precipitation so far would normally be just over 27 inches.
“Right now, we’re in a surplus,” Hill said. “For the Jackson area, our precipitation since Jan. 1, we’ve had 44 inches of rain.
“So, we’re running in a surplus of 16.7 inches. That’s the good news for now.”
And that may continue. According to the NWS Climate Prediction Center, most of the state will likely see above-average rainfall during June through August.
“Hopefully, we keep up the rainfall,” Hill said. “I hope we keep up the rainfall all season so we don’t have to deal with a drought situation.”
“This season is looking to be an extraordinary one in a number of ways, based on our data and models with the El Niño, La Niña playing out a significant role,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad in a press conference. “Of note, the forecast for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook.”
So, what does that mean for Mississippi? Hill said an El Niño weather pattern, which we’re currently experiencing, is less conducive for intensification of named storms. However, that pattern is expected to switch to a La Niña pattern, which isn’t as disruptive for storm intensification.
Hill explained that the question is when will this transition take place? If it happens later in the year, it will be after the time when Mississippi typically experiences its worst hurricanes, which is late August. If it happens before then, it’s a different story.
“If it happens in July, we might be playing ball,” Hill said.
Even if the transition happens soon, there’s still no guarantee Mississippi will be affected, but Hill said people still need to take the situation seriously.
“It only takes one to be a bad season,” Hill said. “So, we need to prepare. We need to prepare every year.”
Do you have a story idea? Contact Brian Broom at 601-961-7225 or bbroom@gannett.com.
### Hot and Dry Summer Forecast for Mississippi
Mississippi is gearing up for a hot and humid summer, with the National Weather Service (NWS) predicting a higher-than-average temperature season from June to August. Last summer saw record-breaking heat and a severe drought, leading to wildfires, agricultural disasters, and a spike in crawfish prices. However, this year is currently experiencing a rainfall surplus, which could help mitigate drought conditions. Additionally, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts an active hurricane season with 17-25 named storms. The impact on Mississippi will depend on the timing of the transition from El Niño to La Niña weather patterns. Residents are advised to prepare for potential severe weather.
