CSU Predicts Busy 2024 Hurricane Season

Summary:
Colorado State University (CSU) researchers forecast an extremely busy 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting 23 storms, with 11 becoming hurricanes and five reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher). This is the highest number of hurricanes ever predicted by CSU in a June outlook. On average, a season includes 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Although hurricane predictions are not always precise, CSU’s accuracy rate over the past nine years is 64%.
There is a 62% chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coastline, higher than the typical 43%. Specifically, the east coast, including Florida, has a 42% landfall chance, up from the usual 34%, and the Gulf Coast has a 42% chance, compared to an average of 27%.
The predicted active season is attributed to the return of La Nina and record warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures. NOAA’s forecast aligns closely with CSU’s, predicting 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes, and estimating an 85% chance of an above-average season.
Currently, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking two systems: one in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico with a 50% chance of forming into a tropical depression, and another off the southeastern U.S. coast with a 20% chance of formation but expected to bring heavy rainfall and winds to Florida. Neither system poses an immediate threat to Louisiana. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to September 30.