Executive Summary Insights

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033 report highlights several key trends and projections in global agricultural and fisheries markets over the next decade:

1. Emerging Economies: They have been major drivers of global agricultural and fisheries market developments over the past 20 years, a trend expected to continue.
2. China’s Role Declining: While China’s influence on global food and agricultural consumption is waning, India and Southeast Asia are gaining prominence, driven by urbanization and rising affluence.
3. Calorie Intake: Middle-income countries will see a 7% increase in calorie intake, whereas low-income countries will see a 4% increase, insufficient to meet the Sustainable Development Goal of zero hunger by 2030.
4. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Agriculture’s GHG emissions intensity is expected to decline due to productivity improvements, though direct emissions will still rise by 5%.
5. Food Loss and Waste: Halving food loss and waste by 2030 could reduce global agricultural GHG emissions by 4% and lower the number of undernourished people by 153 million.
6. International Markets: Well-functioning agricultural commodity markets are crucial for global food security, with 20% of calories traded globally.
7. Price Projections: A slight fall in international reference prices for major agricultural commodities is expected, but this may not translate to lower local retail food prices due to domestic factors.
   The report emphasizes the need for strategic policy planning to address challenges such as food security, climate change, and market vulnerabilities, underscored by the recent impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions.