Singapore Prepares for La Nina with Uncertain Heat Relief
SINGAPORE – While wetter weather is expected in the second half of 2024 with the return of La Nina, it is unlikely to offer much respite from the heat, said the weatherman.
El Nino typically brings drier, hotter conditions to South-east Asia and Australia, while La Nina usually brings wetter and cooler conditions. They alternate every few years and, together, the two phases are known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (Enso).
The peak temperature impact from El Nino was during its decaying phase between March and April 2024, said the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS).
Currently, the Enso status is neutral, according to the MSS website, which means neither phenomenon is happening. This status is expected to remain until July.
The MSS forecasts a 60 to 70 per cent chance of La Nina conditions developing in the second half of 2024.
Over the last few months, cooler sub-surface ocean temperatures have been observed in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, and this is a precursor to La Nina, added MSS.
On June 3, the UN World Meteorological Organisation said there was a 60 per cent chance of La Nina conditions from July to September and a 70 per cent likelihood of it from August to November.
Depending on the strength of the upcoming La Nina and when it will peak, 2024’s annual average temperature could be either above or below the high of 28.2 deg C for 2023, the MSS said on June 7 in response to queries from The Straits Times.
“Additionally, there is the long-term warming trend that needs to be considered,” added the MSS, referring to global warming.
Each month of the El Nino period between June 2023 and April 2024 broke global temperature records, said the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
La Nina typically brings more rainfall in Singapore, particularly during the South-west monsoon season between June and September, which is commonly the drier period here.
“Currently, there is no clear indication of the timing and strength of the predicted La Nina event. We can expect some indication about one month ahead of the onset of La Nina, and this will also depend on the skill of prediction models,” said MSS.
Singapore Prepares for La Nina with Uncertain Heat Relief
SINGAPORE – While wetter weather is expected in the second half of 2024 with the return of La Nina, it is unlikely to offer much respite from the heat, said the weatherman.
El Nino typically brings drier, hotter conditions to South-east Asia and Australia, while La Nina usually brings wetter and cooler conditions. They alternate every few years and, together, the two phases are known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (Enso).
The peak temperature impact from El Nino was during its decaying phase between March and April 2024, said the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS).
Currently, the Enso status is neutral, according to the MSS website, which means neither phenomenon is happening. This status is expected to remain until July.
The MSS forecasts a 60 to 70 per cent chance of La Nina conditions developing in the second half of 2024.
Over the last few months, cooler sub-surface ocean temperatures have been observed in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, and this is a precursor to La Nina, added MSS.
On June 3, the UN World Meteorological Organisation said there was a 60 per cent chance of La Nina conditions from July to September and a 70 per cent likelihood of it from August to November.
Depending on the strength of the upcoming La Nina and when it will peak, 2024’s annual average temperature could be either above or below the high of 28.2 deg C for 2023, the MSS said on June 7 in response to queries from The Straits Times.
“Additionally, there is the long-term warming trend that needs to be considered,” added the MSS, referring to global warming.
Each month of the El Nino period between June 2023 and April 2024 broke global temperature records, said the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
La Nina typically brings more rainfall in Singapore, particularly during the South-west monsoon season between June and September, which is commonly the drier period here.
“Currently, there is no clear indication of the timing and strength of the predicted La Nina event. We can expect some indication about one month ahead of the onset of La Nina, and this will also depend on the skill of prediction models,” said MSS.
Summary:
The Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) reports that while La Nina, which typically brings wetter and cooler conditions, is expected to return in the second half of 2024, it will not significantly alleviate the ongoing heat. Currently, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (Enso) status is neutral and is expected to remain so until July. MSS forecasts a 60-70% chance of La Nina developing later in the year, supported by cooler sub-surface ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific. The UN World Meteorological Organisation also predicts a high likelihood of La Nina between July and November. However, the strength and timing of La Nina are still uncertain, and predictions will be clearer closer to its onset. Despite La Nina’s potential for increased rainfall, especially during the typically dry South-west monsoon season, the long-term warming trend due to global warming remains a concern.